Moderate to high risk of severe Tropical Cyclone affecting Tonga

Tonga Braces for Potential Severe Tropical Cyclone by End of 2025-26 Season

A growing body of evidence suggests that Tonga, a Pacific island nation located in the South Pacific Ocean, is bracing for a potentially catastrophic tropical cyclone. The risk of at least one severe Tropical Cyclone affecting the country by the end of the 2025-26 season is moderate to high.

The peak period for severe Tropical Cyclone activity is expected to occur in February and March 2026, posing a significant threat to Tonga's residents. The small island nation's history with devastating cyclones dates back to the 19th century, resulting in over 100 reported fatalities since records began. Tonga's remote location and limited resources only exacerbate the impact of tropical cyclones, making disaster preparedness and response a significant challenge for the government.

The potential fallout from this cyclone is not limited to Tonga alone. Fiji, with which Tonga shares a long-standing relationship based on shared history, culture, and geography, is also at risk. The Fijian Meteorological Service has warned of a moderate risk of tropical cyclone activity in the region, with some models suggesting that a storm could potentially affect both countries in the coming months.

In contrast, New Zealand's own meteorological service indicates a lower risk of tropical cyclone activity in its region. While this may provide some relief for the country, it also serves as a reminder that the impact of tropical cyclones can be far-reaching and devastating.

As the 2025-26 season draws to a close, Tonga and its neighbors must remain vigilant and take all necessary precautions to prepare for the worst. The international community has already begun to take notice, with many countries offering support and assistance to Pacific Island nations in the face of tropical cyclone threats.

For now, the clock is ticking, and the people of Tonga are bracing for impact. The implications of this story will only become clearer as the days turn into weeks, but one thing is certain: the Pacific Island nation must be prepared to face the full fury of a severe Tropical Cyclone by the end of the 2025-26 season.